Education

WS-1: Triangles Reimagined

Full Day

Monday, September 9 8:00 AM - 4:00 PM PT

Description

This workshop will focus on the use of Actuarial Case Reserves to solve many of the problems with triangle development (changes in mix, settlement rate, and case adequacy). By using predictive modeling techniques to develop objective algorithms for these reserves, reserving triangles can be re-built to be much more reliable and transparent (think Berquist-Sherman, but with a scalpel instead of a chainsaw). While the approach makes use of individual claim development models, framing the results back into triangles provides demonstration of the resulting algorithm’s effectiveness and stability. Benefits of using these algorithmic reserves extend not only to creating estimates of total reserve need, but to actuarial pricing work as well. While the focus of this half-day workshop will be on the creation and use of Actuarial Case Reserves, we will also discuss the concept of Policy-Level IBNR reserves as an additional triangle layer, reflecting estimated not-yet-reported claims. No prior predictive modeling experience is necessary, but there will be two hours of pre-work to maximize the effectiveness of time spent during the workshop itself. Users will be provided access to temporary Azure workstations for a week prior to the workshop until a week after the workshop so that they can continue to explore these concepts with the sample data and tools provided.

WS-2: Reserve Modeling Using Bayesian MCMC

Full Day

 Monday, September 9 8:00 AM - 4:00 PM PT

Description

The workshop will consist of two case studies. The morning portion of the workshop will cover building a simple Bayesian MCMC reserve model using the brms macro writer to build STAN models and demonstrate how to check model results using tidybayes and tidyverse packages. A simple model means that there is no systematic change in loss cost trends, underwriting or claims operations within the company. The afternoon session will walk through a case study applying those tools to a reserve model in a more complex and realistic environment where there are potential systematic changes in loss cost trends as well as changes in underwriting and claims operations.

WS-3: Maximizing the Value of Your Actuarial Report and Opinion

Full Day

Monday, September 9 8:00 AM - 4:00 PM PT

Description

Your actuarial opinion and reports are reviewed and analyzed for appropriateness to different stakeholders, including company management, auditors, regulators, court officials and jurors. Each group has different needs for information, and you will want to be able to communicate effectively to all.

This workshop will deepen your expertise on the latest requirements for P&C Statements of Actuarial Opinions with a review of actuarial qualification standards, standards of practice and interactive case studies.

WS-4: Across the Tidyverse: R’s Data Wrangling Ecosystem

Half Day-Morning

Monday, September 9 8:00 AM - 11:30 AM PT

Description

This workshop will explore various packages in the "tidyverse" and illustrate how to use them for actuarial analysis. We will address data wrangling, visualization, and functional programming.

WS-5: Bootstrapping and Mack

Half Day-Afternoon

Monday, September 9 12:30 PM - 4:00 PM PT

Understanding reserve variability has become an important skill for the practicing actuary. Moving from point estimates and deterministic ranges to distributions of possible outcomes is one of the critical quantitative building blocks for effective Enterprise Risk Management. Insurance executives, regulators, risk managers and rating agencies are all raising the bar for the actuarial profession with respect to discussing and disclosing insurance risk calculations.

Based on material from the Reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar, this mini workshop will cover two commonly used models for reserve variability: Mack and ODP Bootstrap. The instructors will present both the background to the models and how to implement them using hands-on exercises.

The workshop will introduce the Mack model and the ODP bootstrap model. Participants will receive Excel files prior to the session and are expected to bring their laptop to the sessions in order to complete the exercises.